Rules Of Engagement
RoadToPrediction.com is an online platform dedicated to assembling and dissemanating
the most accurate consensus driven forecasts of financial markets.
RoadToPrediction.com enables anyone with interest and ability in
financial forecasting to express their views in such form that their forecasting skill can
be measured and evaluated. Contributions from forecasters with superior forecasting ability
are merged with implied distributions from derivatives markets and
incorporated into our proprietary Really Consensical™ Forecasts.
Forecasts can be viewed freely by any web site visitor, but only registered users may submit
their forecasts. Registration does not require any personal information beyond account
contact e-mail.
We will publish scores and rankings of the most successful forecasters (we call
them The Prediktors). The scorecard page will display the public contact
information for those Prediktors which have explicitly allowed it on their
account preferences page.
Newly registereds user may begin to contribute forecasts right away, but their
forecasts will not be counted in the consensus forecast until they meet the
inclusion criterion: their average Z-Score has to be below the median Z-Score
(see below for explanation about Z-Score). Both the individual Z-Scores and
the aggregate distribution of forecasts are updated at the end of each weekly
forecasting session.
Every Friday, at midnight EST, RoadToPrediction.com initiates a new set of
forecasting sessions. Each forecasting session lasts for 1 week and involves
predicting end-of-day close price of a Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) stock at a
future date. Future dates belong to the following set: 1 week, 2 weeks,
1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year, counting from the end of the
orecasting session, which is the midnight of the following Friday.
During the week, while the forecasting session is open, one can submit any
number of forecasts, but only the last one standing as of midnight next Friday
counts. Once we close the forecasting session and we receive the end-of-day
stock prices (official closes), we compare all forecasts for that date with
official closes. We use the distribution of forecast errors of all
contributors to calculate our proprietary Z-Score for every contributor.
Then, for every contributor, we calculate average Z-score, using their full
history of contributions.
Upon close of each forecasting session we calculate the standard deviation
(centered second moment) of the distribution of forecasts. For every submitted
session forecast we calculate the difference between the forecast and the
official close price. We define the absolute value of this difference divided
by the session standard deviation, as the individual forecast Z-Score.
Finally, we calculate the average Z-Score of all individual forecasts for
every user. This Z-Score is then used to rank the users. The smaller the
Z-Score, the better is the ability of the forecaster.
We then select the subset of contributors that have a minimum number of
submitted forecasts and rank them by their Z-Score. Those above the median
score will have the privilege of having their forecasts included in the
published expected prices and volatilities during the next session. The
privilege is not only academic: once RoadToPrediction.com becomes established,
successful forecasters will participate in revenue sharing. We are still
developing the business model, but our goal is to build a platform offering
superior forecasting ability to our end users, while rewarding our contributors
based on their performance.
Any type of model and any type of approach is acceptable. RoadToPrediction.com
does not require any disclosure about forecasting approach. In order to
qualify for inclusion in real-time forecasts during any open session, a
participant must demonstrate forecasting ability. You must submit a minimum
number of forecasts before you are eligible for contributing. After that, your
historical average Z-Score must remain above median. Your home page will show
your performance metrics and will indicate whether your forecasts are eligible
to be counted for the next session.
If you are ranked among the top 100 Prediktors and you indicate that you allow
sharing your contact information, your E-Mail will be published on the
Prediktors page, for anyone who might be interested in your skill. By being in
the top quartile you proved your mettle, and you have your RoadToPrediction.com
track record to back it up. RoadToPrediction.com is not responsible, does not
facilitate or participate, in any manner in any interactions following the
publication of Prediktors e-mails and any other parties.
Any consensus statistic available on RoadToPrediction.com may be copied,
reproduced, or distributed in any way without the written permission of
RoadToPrediction.com, as long as RoadToPrediction.com is clearly stated as the
source.
RoadToPrediction.com welcomes comments and opinions about the Web site, but
RoadToPrediction.com does not accept any creative suggestions or ideas unless
we have specifically asked for them.
Anything that is sent to RoadToPrediction.com - by email, regular mail, fax,
submission forms on the Web site, any creative work, comments, suggestions or
ideas – is exclusive property of RoadToPrediction.com, and RoadToPrediction.com has the right to
unrestricted use of these submissions for any purpose commercial or otherwise,
without compensation to the provider of the submissions.
RoadToPrediction.com reserves the right to block contributions, delete
accounts or initiate other corrective actions against any registered users
found to violate web site policies. Any activity that is suspected to
willfully temper or interfere with the function or performance of the web site
will result in immediate termination of the account.
RoadToPrediction.com does not in any way guarantee that the content or tools
available on the Web site are free of problems or viruses or that any defects
will be corrected. RoadToPrediction.com is not responsible for any harm that
comes to you, your computer or to your property from your use of the
RoadToPrediction.com Web site.
RoadToPrediction.com is not responsible for any content contributed or derived
from submissions to the Web site. If you find anything erroneous, offensive,
and in any other way inappropriate, click here to inform us about them and
RoadToPrediction.com will take appropriate actions.
RoadToPrediction.com may provide links and pointers to other Web sites.
RoadToPrediction.com is not responsible in any way for the content at linked sites.
All claims about this Web site shall be governed by the laws of the State of Massachusetts.